Property Prices Grind To A Halt Along Southern Rail Routes
Six months of strike action by RMT Union members could be starting to take its toll on property prices along the main Southern Rail routes. According to figures compiled by online estate agents HouseSimple.com, property price growth since July has ground to a halt along the Brighton Mainline, Mainline West and East routes, which are used by hundreds of thousands of commuters every week.
HouseSimple research reveals that although average property prices along these routes have increased by £21,106 over the past 12 months, since July, average property prices have fallen by almost £2,000 (£1,875). Rail users have had to endure a summer of misery as RMT union members have staged a series of walkouts since the end of April, over the role of conductors on Southern services. A reduced timetable was also introduced in July.
Only four locations along the three main Southern Rail routes* – Hove, Pulborough, Haywards Heath and Gatwick Airport – saw positive growth since July, rising on average a paltry 0.05% (£234). While areas such as Redhill, Balcombe, Shoreham-by-Sea and Worthing, which have experienced strong price growth over the past 12 months, have seen prices fall since July. For example, average prices in Redhill, which is a 40-minute commute from London, increased almost £35,000 (9.19%) over the past year, but since July they have fallen 0.31%.
Although July and August are traditionally quieter months for the property market, activity generally picks up in September. But with no deal in sight, and three more RMT strikes planned before Christmas, prospective buyers who need a reliable train service to London may not be keen to purchase until the ongoing dispute is resolved.
The following table shows how average property prices have fared over the past three and 12 months at locations along the Brighton Mainline route:
| Town/City | Change in property price over past 12 months (£) | % change in price in past 12 months | Change in property price over past 3 months (£) | % change in price in past 3 months |
| East Croydon | £25,931 | 7.44% | -£282 | -0.07% |
| Gatwick Airport | £6,881 | 4.16% | £37 | 0.02% |
| Three Bridges | £3,679 | 1.65% | -£586 | -0.26% |
| Balcombe | £36,546 | 5.95% | -£1,564 | -0.24% |
| Haywards Heath | £27,712 | 6.30% | £459 | 0.10% |
| Wivelsfield | £37,381 | 5.47% | -£5,006 | -0.69% |
| Burgess Hill | £6,604 | 1.86% | -£2,433 | -0.67% |
| Hassocks | £18,070 | 3.63% | -£1,495 | -0.29% |
| Preston Park | £19,819 | 5.04% | -£380 | -0.09% |
| Brighton | £11,487 | 3.12% | -£2,723 | 0.71% |
The following table shows how average property prices have fared over the past three and 12 months at locations along the Mainline West route:
| Town/City | Change in property price over past 12 months (£) | % change in price in past 12 months | Change in property price over past 3 months (£) | % change in price in past 3 months |
| Redhill | £34,692 | 9.19% | -£1,279 | -0.31% |
| Hove | £22,318 | 5.38% | £63 | 0.01% |
| Portslade | £10,339 | 3.59% | -£786 | -0.26% |
| Shoreham-by-Sea | £21,771 | 6.39% | -£1,061 | -0.29% |
| Lancing | £14,377 | 5.54% | -£1,983 | -0.72% |
| Worthing | £18,636 | 6.27% | -£1,378 | -0.43% |
| West Worthing | £15,250 | 5.82% | -£484 | -0.17% |
| Durrington-on-Sea | £17,793 | 5.12% | -£498 | -0.14% |
| Goring-by-Sea | £19,314 | 5.99% | -£2,372 | -0.69% |
| Angmering | £14,665 | 3.86% | -£1,188 | -0.30% |
| Crawley | £13,383 | 4.35% | -£1,055 | -0.33% |
| Horsham | £17,851 | 4.18% | -£1,929 | -0.43% |
| Christ’s Hospital | £19,020 | 3.90% | -£3,541 | -0.69% |
| Billingshurst | £19,048 | 3.98% | -£1,650 | -0.33% |
| Pulborough | £24,591 | 4.76% | £376 | 0.07% |
| Amberley | £28,856 | 4.36% | -£5,320 | -0.77% |
| Arundel | £18,409 | 4.36% | -£3,393 | -0.76% |
| Littlehampton | £11,593 | 3.86% | -£938 | -0.30% |
| Ford | £10,177 | 4.36% | -£1,874 | -0.76% |
| Barnham | £20,551 | 6.68% | -£534 | -0.16% |
| Bognor Regis | £18,454 | 6.68% | -£480 | -0.16% |
- Only looked at stations within 1hr 40 mins from London and didn’t include stations that are on the Brighton Mainline route
The following table shows how average property prices have fared over the past three and 12 months at locations along the Mainline East route:
| Town/City | Change in property price over past 12 months (£) | % change in price in past 12 months | Change in property price over past 3 months (£) | % change in price in past 3 months |
| Plumpton | £82,045 | 9.01% | -£7,764 | -0.78% |
| Cooksbridge | £50,950 | 9.47% | -£2,075 | -0.35% |
| Lewes | £42,140 | 9.01% | -£3,987 | -0.78% |
| Southease | £69,119 | 9.01% | -£6,540 | -0.78% |
| Newhaven Town | £16,880 | 4.67% | -£3,835 | -1.00% |
| Newhaven Harbour | £11,151 | 4.76% | -£1,126 | -0.46% |
| Bishopstone | £7,550 | 2.23% | -£5,636 | -1.60% |
| Seaford | £7,282 | 2.23% | -£5,438 | -1.60% |
| Polegate | £7,179 | 2.31% | -£1,715 | -0.54% |
| Hampden Park | £10,854 | 4.87% | -£1,474 | -0.63% |
| Eastbourne | £10,335 | 3.87% | -£2,259 | -0.81% |
- Only looked at stations within 1hr 40 mins from London and didn’t include stations that are on the Brighton Mainline or Mainline West route
Alex Gosling, CEO of online estate agents HouseSimple.com comments: “House prices along Southern Rail routes haven’t gone into freefall just yet, but these figures do suggest that the ongoing dispute is hurting local property markets. It would be a real kick in the teeth if homeowners, who have had to endure the daily misery of train delays, cancellations and strike action, started to see the value of their homes falling because of the RMT and Southern Rail’s inability to reach a deal.
“For prospective buyers, concerns over an unreliable train service as a result of further strike action is bound to play on their minds when they’re deciding where to buy. It’s likely some buyers, who may be looking to move out of London for a better quality of life, and the opportunity to get more property for their money, will be put off committing to a purchase until this dispute is resolved. On the other hand, it could provide an opportunity for determined buyers to negotiate a good price if there are sellers who need to move and are willing to consider lower offers in order to sell quickly.”